A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
