Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
